2016 forecast – 2015 review
As we take off running into 2016, here is a brief look back at 2015. We are struck by the progress on several clean energy fronts in the second half of 2015.
The EPA’s Clean Energy Plan announced in August will hasten the transition to non-carbon based electricity generation. This represents a significant increase in the EPA’s authority over state’s energy policies and fuel use, although it doesn’t dictate how states reduce CO2 emissions, just that they must reduce or they must pay to participate in carbon reduction markets. This will be a long and winding legal road through numerous court challenges, but certainly represents a progressive step towards cleaner air. http://www.epa.gov/
This ITC extension is very good for the solar industry as well as taxpayers because instead of looking at a bubble in 2016 and perhaps a decrease in 2017, we are looking at several years of more predictable growth. A very good forecast and details of the tax credit schedule are in this Utility Dive article: http://www.utilitydive.com/news/what-utilities-need-to-know-about-solar-growth-after-the-itc-extension/411139/
California’s Net Metering 2.0 does not affect us directly, but represents a major confirmation that very high levels of distributed pv should be valued at the retail rate at the point of use. http://www.utilitydive.com/
Unfortunately we have seen some back-sliding in some states where the utility industry has a more unified influence on the government regulators, as in Nevada and Arizona. http://www.technologyreview.
Locally we saw another record year for pv installations in the state and at Power Trip Energy. Here at Power Trip Energy, we installed 570 KW last year, an 18% increase over the previous year, compared to ~40% growth overall in the state in 2015.
The question will now be what the WA legislature does. We stand at a crossroads here in WA. Will we lead the way to a cleaner environment and healthier economy, with individuals empowered to improve their homes and reap the benefits. Or will we back slide at the behest of utilities which are clawing to hold onto a past they can not have as their future? We are founding members of Solar Installers of Washington and through this group we are supporting efforts in Olympia to address our state programs.
Regardless of what our national and state governments do, we will continue to serve our clients by surveying the renewable energy industry and providing our best assessment of what makes the most sense for our clients, and performing quality turn-key installations.
Thank you to our clients and best wishes to everyone for 2016!
11 KW of SunPower PV at Nancy’s home in Kingston, WA
Some Net Metering News from Various States
“Net Metering” describes the relationship between a utility and its customer when the customer has rooftop solar that is sometimes feeding the grid in addition to supporting their own loads, and the customer is compensated at the same rate as they are charged per kwh consumed or provided. In Washington, we have a net metering law requiring utilities to accept net metering systems up to a total capacity of 0.5% of the 1996 peak load. For more info read here https://powertripenergy.com/solar-faq/
Many utilities are now reaching that level, and due to the PR efforts of national electric industry interests, some local utilities are using language they have heard which threatens solar here in Washington. Increasing the legislative caps on net metering is crucially important to allowing private individuals the freedom to invest their own funds in upgrading their house with solar, and being compensated at a fair rate for the clean electricity they provide to the utility. Unfortunately the legislature has had a difficult time addressing this issue, even though the present cap of 0.5% of a peak load from 20 years ago is miniscule.
Here is how three other states are faring, based on recent news:
Hawaii’s Utility commission has voted to end net metering after seeing solar on as many as 16% of the homes on Oahu. This is poor policy, and will probably lead to grid-defection among some people who can afford batteries and who have large parcels (Hawaii law requires utility electrical service on standard small residential lots.) http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/hawaii-regulators-shutdown-hecos-net-metering-program
New York regulators have suspended the caps on net metering in an effort not to interrupt installations as reaching the current 6% of load cap is imminent. http://www.utilitydive.com/news/ny-regulators-lift-solar-net-metering-caps-until-rev-docket-sets-der-values/407667/
In Vermont, the net metering cap was raised from 4% to 15% two years ago, a cap that has now been reached. Regulators are considering removing the cap. http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/oct/24/vermont-reaching-net-metering-cap-with-solar-expan/
Based on the level of solar other states are working to achieve, if you hear anyone talking about solar causing problems in Washington at 0.5% capacity, your response should be skepticism.
Solar Energy Capacity Increased 56% in Washington in 2014
Environment Washington has released a report calculating a 56% increase in solar pv installed in Washington State last year over the existing capacity. A 56% increase in capacity in one year is tremendous, and agrees with our experience and observations.
We are seeing a similar increase in 2015, and forecast that we will again see that increase over 2015 in 2016. A portion of this growth has been driven by the decrease in price of solar pv modules, and a portion of 2016’s growth will be due to the expiration of the Federal 30% tax credit.
To qualify for the 30% Federal Tax Credit on solar, a project must be complete by Dec 31, 2016. We are currently booking projects for Spring of 2016, and we forecast that our installation calendar for 2016 will be filled before the middle of next year. We are also still looking for another qualified licensed electrician to join our team and further increase our installation capacity.
For solar capacity to continue to grow at this rate in Washington after the conclusion of federal incentives, we need to increase our net metering capacity by updating our once progressive but now dated net metering law. Increasing our state’s required net metering capacity requires no expenditures on the part of the state or utilities, it merely enables individuals and business to invest their own money in upgrading their facilities with solar.
Job Opening for Electrician
We continue to have more interest than we can service at the moment, and as we continue to hire and train, our current needs are greatest for another electrician. Please pass the word about this great opportunity for the right person.
http://olympic.craigslist.org/trd/5157049962.html
Electrician (01 or 02) for Solar Installs (Port Townsend)
The work tasks include:
— Site evaluation to determine best method of roof access
— Roof work while harnessed.
— Mounting, grounding, and wiring pv modules to the racking
— Conduit runs from roof to electrical panel, sometimes in attic or crawlspace
— Installation of inverter and other equipment, electrical interconnection to existing or sometimes new electrical service panel
— Maintenance of clean job site, properly stocked work vehicle, and warehouse
If you can do those tasks well in four 10 hour days per week, we offer:
— an excellent work experience with good pay
— on-the-job and classroom training
— company group health plan
— profit sharing
— vacation accrual and sick pay, and
— quarterly bonuses based on company performance
— all while doing the right thing for our clients, our community, and the environment.
Our crew is open to installers who work with a positive, cheerful, and professional attitude.
To apply please submit a resume, no calls or walk-ins please.
Solar Article from Sequim Gazette
Alana Linderoth does a good job writing an update from our recent Sequim Solar Tour, and covering Clallam PUD’s new interconnection requirements. Sequim has seen a relatively high rate of grid-tied pv installations and will continue to do so despite additional expenses due to Clallam PUD’s new rules.
http://www.sequimgazette.com/news/311067641.html
Visitors from Alberta, driving Tesla Model S, using Public EV Charge Stations
I did not get the chance to speak with these folks, but I did notice there was also a Nissan Leaf driver who pulled in to use the charging equipment while it was already occupied. I made sure she knew about the other stations in Port Townsend, and she explained that she came up from Port Ludlow to shop in PT, appreciated the EV stations so she could feel comfortable running many errands and expanding her range.
Power Lunch Kitsap – May 21 – Graeme Sackrison, Thurston Climate Action Team
Our speaker on the 21st is Graeme Sackrison, Board Chairman of the Thurston Climate Action Team. T-CAT is a non-profit that focuses its efforts toward energy efficiency and transportation projects that help combat climate change. Join us for this Power Lunch and learn how things evolved with Thurston Energy, where they found success, what they are still trying to accomplish, and some lessons they’ve learned. The Kitsap, Bremerton and Bainbridge communities also have active energy efficiency efforts…and we’ll have a conversation comparing their experiences with ours. RSVP through Eventbrite with this link;https://powerlunchkitsapmay21.eventbrite.com
This is the third in our monthly Power Lunch Kitsap Series, presented by Power Trip Energy and Rice Fergus Miller Architecture and Planning.
The event is 12:15 – 1:15 pm, Thursday May 21, at RFM’s office at 275 Fifth Streee, Suite 100, Bremerton, WA 98337. These are brown bag events, feel free to bring your own lunch.
Tesla Powerwall
Tesla’s recent product announcement is quite a PR achievement. Yes I’m sure it is an engineering and manufacturing achievement as well, and hopefully will be increasing efficiency and decreasing cost of home storage. It is not quite as revolutionary as it appears, and currently unavailable. I expect we will still be talking people out of batteries for the most part, even after we get our hands on the first Powerwall that becomes available to us, which will most likely be 12-18 months from now.
Tesla hasn’t contacted us yet to partner on these installations. I have found that a couple of articles from Wired magazine seem to have the same initial perspective that I have, linked below.
In the meanwhile, we will continue to install grid-tied pv so you can make your own energy. There has never been a better time to install your own solar, and any work we do for you on that front now will be easily integrated with residential storage at a later date, be it from Tesla, SunPower, LG or any of the other Lithium battery products, once they become available and prove themselves reliable and reasonable.
Pictured below is the Lithium battery storage available from SunPower that I viewed a couple of months ago at the SunPower dealer event. This unit includes the inverter and charge controller, which are necessary but not pictured in all of the Tesla photos so far, nor included in the published pricing.
http://www.wired.com/2015/05/teslas-batteries-will-power-home/
http://www.wired.com/2015/05/get-tesla-home-battery-let-physics-explain/
Can America Get to 100% Renewable Energy by 2050?
Can America Get to 100% Renewable Energy by 2050?
This question is debated by two academics in a reasonably articulate and polite manner on this recent “Energy Gang” podcast. Debates may not in the end be the best way to reach a satisfactory conclusion, but they can be very entertaining when done well. I found the proponent, Mark Jacobson, to be informed and convincing, but I freely admit a pre-existing bias for his position. I subscribe to this podcast through itunes and it is consistently informative and interesting. You may enjoy listening, and I would love to hear what you thought.
http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/debate-can-america-get-to-100-renewable-energy-by-2050
Power Lunch Kitsap – April 16 – Passive House and Extreme Energy Efficiency
Join us April 16th for another brown-bag lunch lecture. We are pleased to present Richard Berg from Terrapin Architecture. Richard will speak about how to achieve a high level of insulation and energy efficiency through Passive House methods, which combined with solar panels can achieve, or get close to, net-zero energy usage.
The event will be held at:
Rice Fergus Miller Architecture
275 5th Street, Suite 100
Bremerton, WA 98337
Thursday, April 16, 2015 from 12:15 PM to 1:30 PM (PDT)
This Passive House is a beautiful example of sensible yet extreme energy efficiency, resulting in greater comfort and lower energy bills.